Bhutto Assassinated - Ramifications

RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (CNN) -- Pakistan's former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Thursday after addressing a large gathering of her supporters. Bhutto died of a gunshot wound to the neck, the Pakistani Interior Ministry said. The attacker then blew himself up. The bomb attack killed at least 22 others, doctors said.
(Courtesy CNN)

Not unexpected. Yet unthinkable and horrible.This must be in the minds of most of the people as they come to terms with assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Bhutto was in present times a hope for Pakistan's future and had a massive following with masses.

Ever since Bhutto returned Pakistan was inflamed with Political activity. Her touchdown welcome attack with killed hundreds in October was just a remainder of things to come. Surely being a front runner for elusive PM seat she had many opponents ready to kill her to advance their political ambitions.A widow of former Prime Minister and being a woman in Islamic Republic further could have worked against her. Though myself not a big fan of Bhutto, I surely feel she was the need of the hour for mending Pakistani political turmoil. She had a large base, could bring people to table to solve issues and was probably most able face for Musharraf's scheme of things. But if Musharraf is not directly involved, it is still his fault of not maintaining law and order with whole truckloads of army and personnel. Now this tragedy will be introspected over the coming days and hopefully murderers will be caught. But its ramifications on various people and groups can be guessed:

On Pakistan: Surely will suffer the most. Losing their leader in a country seriously void of able leaders will give them a big jolt towards achieving free democracy. But this will surely fuel more violence and unrest in Pakistan in days to come.

On Musharraf: On top of the list of usual suspects at this juncture to point fingers at is Musharraf. Sadly he also knows this and also probably the attackers (considering they weren't in same league with Musharraf). Bhutto was an important part of Musharraf's future strategy and her loss along with violence accompanied with hit will be a big setback for him. Must assuage Bhutto supporters now and mend ways with Nawaz Sharif.

On Nawaz Sharif: will surely gain from this as his way is now almost clear for being next Prime Minister. However anti-government, pro-Taliban and pro-Bhutto supporters will be ready to pounce on him now. Must now lead the way is bringing all factions to table with the help of Musharraf and bring some order in already torn house.

On India: Sadly we can only wait and watch. As before, its still the case of choosing bad from worst. No leader in Pakistan has any genuine aspirations to maintain healthy cross border relations beyond regular PR exercises. But in my point of view Pakistan in turmoil is much worst than under the control of corrupt but stable government which can keep Talibani fractions under control.

On America and World: America has reiterated time to time of importance of Pakistan in so called "War on Terror". But with Pakistan in trouble they have a much bigger problem than Iran. In Iran there is a doubt of Nuclear weapons. But here is a full blown chance of the same passing into the hands of terror groups as government control weakens. Hence they must act quickly to somehow restore peace in Pakistan.

Though it is very early to comment on the outcome and ramifications of these attacks, we can only hope that peace is quickly restored and democracy prevails on our neighboring doors. Mrs Benazir Bhutto RIP.

Undemocratic Democracy

"This is not just a journey for me, but the beginning of a journey for the people of Pakistan for a better future" - Benazir Bhutto, former prime minister, on returning to Pakistan on September 18th after an eight-year self-imposed exile.

But what followed was a bloody massacre killing over 150. Over the last few weeks media, newspapers and blogosphere are filled with news of homecoming of erstwhile Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. There has been a mixed response to this home coming of PPL leader. Most are happy as they believe that this will see an end to long dictatorial regime of Gen Mussharaf as Bhutto comes waving the flag of democracy. But these trails for democracy have been too common and Army Generals have wiped them off easily as seen with Nawaz Sharif, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto etc. Main point to stress here is that army is way to powerful in Pakistan and is actively involved in day to day working of Pakistani State machinery. So its interference cannot be easily derided and so each and every so called democratic government is in fact only an enterprise serving Army rather than Nation.

Many do not recognize BB as a deserving candidate for leading the country. The reason was the way in which she left the country. Bhutto comes as a failed former prime minister, accused of grand-scale thieving who ran away to save her conviction (in fact she is granted amnesty by Mush). Ulterior motive is the face saving act by Mush to salvage something for his next stint as President. BB is just a vassal in this scheme of things and will just provide a face to connect with people and give right messages to international community. Rest will remain the same as before if one
go according to the deal between the two.

However strength of Musharraf itself is doubted by pundits as he is surrounded on all sides which are ready to pounce for his head. On one side are Al Quida people who are upset with Mush's American fling, then there is political opposition from other parties, there is Army who are not getting to many incentives (and wars), troubled regions of Balochistan and world pressure. So how effective and lasting this deal will be is questionable.

Another point is what should we Indians think about this development. Return of democracy can be a welcome thought for Indians but that of Bhutto is surely not. She was the first one to fuel terrorists in the region by arms, aids and money against India. Her provoking rhetoric against Kashmiri pandits cannot be easily forgotten. Many feel that she is herself responsible for Karachi bombings and this may again be a scheme to gather public sympathy and support.

Whatever happens will be eagerly watched but its foolish to think that India may gain anything from this. Pakistan is going towards destruction. It is already an International terror hub, biggest arms market and these things should be addressed by India on its own front. Mr. Mush will surely be either going to seek political asylum outside Pakistan or going to be hanged or killed( ok this is a bit extreme but Musharraf also knows this). But that will spell further disaster for Indians...